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Seeking Alpha 2022-08-27 07:01:16

Bitcoin: Crypto Winter Or Crypto Extinction?

SummaryBitcoin does not have the same mechanism of recovery that the broader market has.So while the S&P 500 will almost certainly recover from the 2022 downturn, crypto does not necessarily come back.Our analysis suggests the crypto drop is permanent and Bitcoin will eventually go to zero.As I’m sure you already know, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has dropped to less than 1/3 of its peak value.SAThe relevant question is whether there will be a recovery, or if this is the beginning of the end.Those of us who work in the broader stock market refer to market drops as cyclical, implying that there is a certain inevitability to an eventual recovery. Crypto purveyors whether that be the currencies or ancillary services have adopted similar language, referring to the unparalleled crash as a downturn, downcycle or the “Crypto Winter”.After winter inevitably come spring and summer, and they want to convey that sort of inevitability to a crypto recovery.I posit that Crypto Extinction would be a more accurate term.In this article, I intend to use reasoning to show 2 things: Why the S&P 500 will always recover (barring extreme circumstances) Why we believe the crypto downturn is permanent I think examining the reasons the broader stock market has always recovered from crashes will help illuminate the flimsiness of the assumption that crypto will have a similar cyclical recovery.Why the broader stock market always recoversLet us begin with the fa...

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